Sept 2025 Market Commentary: Crypto Liquidity, Policy, Market Structure
Author: Hillroute Date: Sept 29, 2025
Executive Summary:
Bitcoin, Ethereum & Altcoins:
Bitcoin ETPs (Exchange-Traded Products) are reported to hold ~7% of supply, while Cboe (Chicago Board Options Exchange) has announced plans for longer-dated “continuous” futures contracts (pending approvals). A new BRC2.0 upgrade adds smart-contract features to BTC. Ethereum strengthened with a record ~$166B stablecoin base and ETF inflows. Altcoins gained, with Solana treasuries at ~3% of supply and BNB trading near $1,000 in mid-September. Spot (~$1.86T) and DEX (~$369B) volumes stayed strong.
Macro & Rates:
The Fed cut rates 0.25% to 4.00%-4.25%. Projections show a gradual decline through 2027, though 2025 cuts remain debated. Softer job data and lower yields point to money potentially moving from cash yields toward risk assets, according to market commentary.
Policy & Regulation:
The SEC approved the first U.S. multi-asset crypto ETP and adopted generic listing standards intended to accelerate approvals. With the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), it clarified spot crypto rules and is exploring 24/7 frameworks. Abroad, Japan has proposed a 20% flat crypto tax with loss carry-forward (not yet effective), while Australia eased stablecoin distribution but tightened oversight.
Market Structure & Adoption:
The LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) launched tokenized fund rails, and Coinbase introduced a “Mag7 + Crypto” index future. Tokenized gold was reported ~$2.57B on safe-haven demand. In APAC, India led global adoption, with regional on-chain activity up 69% YoY.
BTC | ETH | Altcoins- Market Pulse
Bitcoin- ETFs, programmability, duration hedges
- BRC20 “BRC2.0” adds EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) to the indexer, enabling Ethereum-style contracts on Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin ETPs (Exchange-Traded Products) are reported to hold ~7% of max supply, tightening available float.
- Cboe (Chicago Board Options Exchange) announced plans for 10-year “continuous” BTC futures, easing roll frictions for U.S. participants.
Key BTC Metrics :
Altcoins- SOL treasuries and exchange-token beta
- SOL corporate treasuries reached ~$4B (~3% of supply); Forward Industries holds ~6.8M SOL and staked holdings.
- BNB traded ~$1,000 ATH (all-time high) amid DOJ (U.S. Department of Justice) monitor chatter.
- Spot volumes were reported at ~$1.86T in August; DEXs (Decentralized Exchange) to ~$369B, with Uniswap and PancakeSwap leading.
Altcoin Market Metrics (as of 29 Sept 2025):
Macro & Rates
Policy stance
- Fed Chair Powell says FOMC is divided on additional rate cuts in 2025. Meeting-by-meeting stance; SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) shows median projections of 3.6% (end-2025), 3.4% (2026), and 3.1% (2027). Lower rates may encourage a shift from cash yields toward risk assets, according to market analysts.
Decision & path
- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell said this was a risk management cut.
- New rate range: 4.00% – 4.25%. Markets expect two more 25-bps cuts in 2025, and one cut each in 2026 and 2027. Markets reacted sharply.
Policy, Regulation & Geopolitics
ETFs, Listings & Spot Market Structure
- SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) approves first US multi-asset crypto ETP + adopts generic listing standards; Grayscale’s basket (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA) cleared; new standards let exchanges list qualifying spot ETFs without bespoke orders, compressing timelines and broadening menus.
- SEC & CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) clarify spot trading and explore 24/7 markets.
Tax & supervision shifts
- Japan has proposed a crypto tax cut (not yet enacted): 55% to 20% (FY2026); Introduces insider-trading rules, and allows a three-year loss carry-forward, aligning crypto treatment with equities.
- Australia eases licensing for stablecoin intermediaries.ASIC (Australian Securities & Investments Commission) class exemption lets AFS (Australian Financial Services) licensed firms distribute named stablecoins without extra market/clearing licences, with retail PDS (Product Disclosure Statement), until Jun 1, 2028.
Market Structure, Adoption & RWAs
Tokenization & rails
- London Stock Exchange Group rolls out a blockchain platform for tokenized private funds. Azure-based DMI lets issuers create and service tokenized private funds within existing regs; first live fund: MembersCap MCM Fund 1 via Archax. Goals: 24/7 rails, lower ops cost, broader access.
Derivatives bridge
- Coinbase launches futures trading for index that includes Nvidia and BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF The new product is called “Mag7 + Crypto Equity Index Futures” (10 components, each 10% of the index) and it blends mega-cap tech, COIN, and BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to diversify U.S. derivatives and connect tech equity with crypto-ETF beta.
Safe-haven & RWAs
- Tokenized Gold market was reported ~$2.5B in September as the Precious Metal Nears Record Highs Record ~$2.57B cap driven by XAUT mint (~$437M) and PAXG inflows (~$142M). Vault-backed tokens capture safe-haven demand.
Global adoption
- India leads global crypto adoption, APAC (Asia-Pacific) emerges as fastest-growing market. India #1 for a second year; U.S. #2. APAC +69% YoY to ~$2.36T on-chain volume; North America/Europe still lead in absolute terms.
